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QAS Alert - US 30 Year Yield Peaking; Copper Bottoming
By: Ken Tower | 31 Mar 2015


 

In an early sign of a Changing Macro Environment, the US 30 Year Yield now shows early signs of peaking while Copper shows important signs of bottoming. 

 

US 30 Year Yield – Early Signs of Peaking  

•For the first time since 2012, the US 30 Year Yield shows early signs of peaking. 
•The profile is similar to other important yield lows: March 2012, January 1999, March 1996, and November 1993. 
•We expect several months of volatile action around current levels before a more sustainable move to higher yield is possible.  Longer-term risk 3.5% (now 2.5%).
 

Copper – Important Signs of Bottoming  

•The profile is similar to that of May 2014, August 2013, and Aug 2012 when copper entered a six month consolidation. 
•This is a fragile, but significant improvement.  It is still possible for copper to test its recent lows.   Expected range 250 – 285 (now 278). 
 

US 30 Year Yield – Early Signs of Peaking  

•In our February 9 QAS Alert we highlighted initial signs of bottoming.  Expected range: 64 - 45.       
•Since that time Oil has remained within our expected range.  
•The improvement remains fragile and similar to that of January – March 2009 when oil began to bottom. is possible.
Energy stocks, in general, show a similar fragile improvement. 
 

Please contact us for further information.

Best Wishes,

Kenneth Tower, CMT
CEO & Chief Investment Strategist
Quantitative Analysis Service, Inc.
Tel: 201-432-7900
Fax: 201-432-0037
Email: qas@qas-service.com
Web: www.qas-service.com

 

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QAS Alert - US 30 Year Yield Peaking; Copper Bottoming
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